Maddux Sports Blog

It’s time to move on from the Olympics and get back into what matters - football. We’ll find lots of different ways to look at things in the coming weeks, but to ease back into it lets take a quick survey of some of the interesting stories out there concerning the most over-watched and over-hyped position on the field - the quarterbacks. I’m interested in these stories partly because of the impact they could have on the field, and partly because the betting public will almost certainly overcompensate for the situations.

Chicago - The Bears made the surprising early decision to appoint Kyle Orton their starting QB over Rex Grossman. I think that that’s the right move, though I don’t get why they would have announced it now instead of waiting until after another preseason game or two. Regardless, the big thing to note here is that the Bears are in trouble. Orton is better than Grossman, but he’s a long way from good. A couple of years ago they showed that that can be overcome if the team is otherwise dominant, but that’s not the case this year, so it could be a long season in Soldier Field.

Buffalo - Trent Edwards is looking like a star. That doesn’t matter much given that it is the preseason, but it’s nice progress, and Edwards has been showing progress for two years. He has a system that he’ll be comfortable with now that his QB coach is his offensive coordinator, and he has the skills, and the team, to make a bit of noise. I’ll be very carefully watching watching this one - if he plays well then the team will be worth a bet, but if he isn’t clicking on all cylinders then the public might ride the hype too far and create opportunities on the other side.

Miami - I like that they picked up Chad Pennington, but I think that people are expecting too much from him. He’ll be better from the start than Chad Henne would be, but he’s still Chad Pennington, and he’s a long way from his peak. There seems to be a sentiment in the media that the combination of Parcells and Pennington will leap this team forward. I’m not buying it.

Cleveland - Derek Anderson suffered a concussion in the last game. If it is even a little serious then this could be Romeo Crennel’s worst nightmare. His way of managing the potential quarterback battle was to ignore it - leave Anderson in lace, and keep Brady Quinn out of sight. Now Quinn could get some valuable face time. If he plays well then Cleveland will have a situation on its hands, and it could get tense. That’s the last thing a team that is trying hard to make the playoffs needs to deal with.

Minnesota - This one scares me. The Vikings have the potential to be really good. All Tavaris Jackson has to do is not screw up. He’s having a heck of a time staying healthy, though. He has knee problems already, though, and those don’t tend to get better in a hurry. There’s no one else on the roster that I would rather have taking the snap than Jackson on the team, though, and they would suffer a setback if he is not ready. Again, the biggest challenge will be in balancing the challenge the situation presents with the reaction of the public.

The Jets - I just don’t care.

We’re back, and we’re hitting the ground running. We’ll be focusing heavily on football for the next while, but before we do I want to take a look at the Olympics before it is too late. I have very much enjoyed watching these games, and attempting to find attractive bets despite a level of knowledge that falls well below that I have for other sports. That’s right  I’ll admit it - I know football better than table tennis. As we speed into and through the second and final week of the games, here are five spots that I’ll be paying attention to and may consider pointing part of my bankroll towards:

1. Women’s 4×100m relay - You probably know that I don’t like low payoffs. That being said, the Jamaicans arguably represent value despite being at just 1/3. The team swept the top three spots in the 100m, and they are clearly in form. The Americans can’t match them in depth or confidence. If you like this bet then you’ll want to make it now, because it’s not going to get any better as the race gets closer.

2. Men’s soccer - The Brazilians are hungry for Olympic gold - something which, incredibly, they have never won. They have been thoroughly dominant so far, they have a deep, complete team. They will certainly be up for their next game against rivals Argentina. They are at 3/2. That’s not a terrible price if you like the team.

3. Men’s flatwater kayak - K1 doesn’t get much attention. If it did then Adam Van Koeverden would be a mega-star. The Canadian is the defending gold medal winner in the 500m K1 race. He’s also the world record holder, and he hasn’t lost a race in two seasons. In the qualifiers for the 1000m event he was dominant, so he is clearly in form. You can get a reasonable -132 price to bet that he will win gold. That’s not bad.

4. Men’s 200m - If you don’t like Usain Bolt’s chances of winning this race, his specialty, after his showing in the 100m then you just haven’t been paying attention. He was ridiculously fast, and is in pretty much perfect form. There is absolutely no value in betting on him to win the race. Where it gets interesting, though, is if you bet on whether the world record will be broken. The mark of 19.32 seconds was set in 1996 by Michael Johnson, and it hasn’t been touched since. Bolt has some owrk to do before he can go that fast, but if anyone can do it then it is him. It’s worth a shot at the +200 price that the record will be broken.

5. Men’s triathlon - This event can be unpredictable, but the women’s race went pretty much exactly to form at the front, so it could be worth a bet that the men’s will do the same. If that happens then Gomez will win by a mile. He has won 11 of his last 13 races dating back to last June. In the other two he was second and seventh, so he is never out of it completely. He’s the world champion, so he knows what pressure is and how to cope with it. The heat won’t be a problem for him, and he already has a win on this course. Pinnacle is offering a price of +122 if you bet that he will win the race. I like that.

With preseason in full swing and the NFL and College football regular season right around the corner we have a little house cleaning to take care of.  Because of updating databases, getting some seasonal previews up, as well as handicapping the days card, blogging will have to take a back seat.  Daily blogging will resume on Monday the 18th, although we may pop in with a post or two before than.

The opening ceremonies got underway today which brings some good wagering opportunities for the savvy sports bettor. With wall to wall coverage from the NBC networks whether you are an Olympic enthusiast or just a casual fan, being able to bet on just about any event can make the Olympic experience more enjoyable. Everyone knows about Olympic basketball, volleyball, and swimming, but what about an interesting prop as to which country will land more gold medals? How about an over under prop on the number of medals the US and China will win? Read on to get the inside scoop.

China Bids to Top Olympics Medals Table

The giant clock in Tiananmen Square has struck 12 and with all preparations in place, the action will soon begin, and bettors will find out whether the unprecedented efforts China has made to supersede the USA at the top of the medals table have paid dividends. China are priced 1.676* by PinnacleSports.com to win more Gold medals that the USA 2.380* in an Olympics Medals betting market priced to only 102%. This is just one of a huge number of low margin Olympics betting markets at PinnacleSports.com, offering up to 60% better Olympics betting odds than traditional bookmakers.

SIGN-UP NOW FOR 60% BETTER 2008 OLYMPICS BETTING ODDS

China Once the Sick Man of East Asia

China was once known in sporting circles as the ‘Sick Man of East Asia’, sending just a single athlete to the Los Angeles games on its debut in 1932. How times have changed. At the Sydney Games in 2000, China won 28 gold medals, moving up to third in the medal table rankings. Four years ago in Athens, China’s gold haul reached 32, including Liu Xiang’s 110m hurdles medal, the second ever podium finish for a Chinese male athlete in the track and field. Only the United States - with 35 Golds - did better.

China has left no stone unturned in its quest to rule the medals table, realizing its limitations, and choosing to focus on those areas it sees as winnable, ratherthan simply setting out to beat everyone at anything. The Chinese Sports Ministry is realistic enough to know that with an extremely poor record in track and field events, they aren’t likely to win Gold in the 100 metres anytime soon. After creating a comprehensive scouting system - starting from pre-school - has cut its cloth accordingly.

China has made a science out of targeting winnable Gold medals, while accepting that it will likely fill fewer podium positions in silver and bronze. This is seen as an acceptable compromise in the single-minded pursuit of their goal. There should be few doubts over China’s chances of grabbing gold in table-tennis, diving, badminton and women’s weightlifting (traditionally very strong disciplines), whereas the US are strong in the pool with 12 swimming Golds gained in Athens, and eight from track and field. PinnacleSports.com have priced the USA 2.200* to win over 96 medals, and 1.769* to win under 96.5 medals; China are priced 2.220* to win over 99 medals and 1.758* to win under 99 medals.

Olympics medals betting markets priced to only 102%.

Pinnacle Sports is offering a huge range of Olympics Sports betting markets, so why not check them out now and enjoy up to 60% better odds than traditional bookmakers.

*All Odds Subject to Change

Technorati Tags: 2008 Beijing Olympics, Olympics Betting, China, USA, gold medals, odds

Shockey Trade Boosts Saints Odds - Courtesy of our friends at Pinnacle Sports.

Although Jeremy Shockey was dealt on July 21, it took a little time for the sports betting market place to catch up. We have noticed a shift in the season win totals and divisional odds on the Saints as has Pinnacle.

With Pro Bowl tight end Jeremy Shockey on board, the New Orleans Saints are now preseason favourites to win the NFC South division. For the best odds on online NFL futures betting, be sure to visit Pinnacle Sportsbook before the end of the summer.

SIGN-UP NOW FOR -104 BETTING ON NFL SIDES

The acquisition of Shockey instantly improves an already potent offense that was fourth in the league in 2007. Shockey gives quarterback Drew Brees a go-to target in the red zone, and a receiver that will take some pressure off No. 1 wideout Marques Colston. If the volatile Shockey keeps his mouth in check, there’s good reason for punters to lay down some money on the Saints as +125* favourites to win the division.

If you’re looking for a little more value in Shockey and the Saints, you might want to handicap New Orleans at +900* to win the NFC outright. Fourth on the NFL Betting Lines board to cash the NFC, New Orleans is listed behind Dallas(+350*), New York (+650)*, and Philadelphia (+750)*.

Besides the addition of Shockey, The Saints are a profitable futures play because of their revamped defense. Big Easy head coach, Sean Payton, is betting that some fresh blood in the front eight will take some heat off the Saints secondary, which was too often exposed last season.

Free agent linebacker, Jon Vilma, will anchor a defense that also includes new faces DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Bobby McCray, LB Dan Morgan and CBs Randall Gay and Aaron Glenn. If this retooled unit is as solid on the field as it looks on paper, the Saints could be the sharpest pick in the NFL futures market.

Punters playing the over/under on NFL team win totals should account for the Saints’ easy schedule. New Orleans plays six games against Atlanta, Oakland, and Kansas City, and doesn’t play an away contest against a team that’s projected by the Pinnacle Sportsbook to play over .500. The over/under on the Saints is currently set at 8 ½ wins, with value on the under (+135*).

*Odds subject to change, Pinnacle only accepts non us residents

Technorati Tags: new orleans saints, nfl betting, jeremy shockey, odds

I actually don’t believe that headline, but at least we have taken a giant step forward. In the last few minutes the news has broken that Brett Favre has been traded to the Jets. We will have to endure a few more days of drama as we hear how he feels about the move, as he flies to New York, as he puts on a new uniform for the first time since his days in Atlanta, as he throws his first pass as a Jet, as he throws his first incompletion, as he… well, you get the point. Still, we are a lot closer to being able to talk about something other than this mess than we were a day or two ago. Before we move on entirely, though, let’s take a quick look at some of the interesting aspects of this move.

1. I am incredibly happy for Jeff Garcia. He is a QB who wins when given the chance, yet he always seems to be in a position where teams are looking past him. I’ve been a big fan of the guy since he was the quarterback of my hometown Calgary Stampeders in the CFL. He was fantastic in San Francisco, and would have stayed there and had a long, successful career if it weren’t for the fact that he was in the impossible situation of having to follow back-to-back hall of famers. One thing I will always remember about that stint by the bay is the game in which he completed 20 passes to Terrell Owens. That’s insane. Since then he was doomed in Detroit, decent in Cleveland, brilliant when needed in Philly, and more than adequate in Tampa Bay. He doesn’t deserve to be replaced, so I’m thrilled he won’t be. Not to call something after the fact, but I’m not surprised that Favre didn’t end up in Tampa after seeing an interview with Jon Gruden today. He looked not at all like a guy who was looking forward to playing ringmaster in a circus all year.

2. I wouldn’t bet that Chad Pennington will make the Jets now. It wouldn’t make sense to have him behind Clemens and Favre, and the team hasn’t been high on him for a while, anyway. He’d look good in a lot of other places as an experienced backup, though. I’d love to see him in Houston, for example. Heck, I even think he’d be a nice fit in Kansas City as a starter for a year or two while the team tries to sort out their mess.

3. It will be very interesting to watch the futures on the Jets. To the surprise of no one, they have changed dramatically in the last few minutes. A month ago the Jets were at 8/1 to win the AFC East. When I checked a minute ago they were at 5/2. Needless to say (I hope) that is a ridiculous move that reflects the sports books’ opinion of the public - they think that they are idiots. That’s the only way that this price move can be explained. Favre probably makes the team better, but he doesn’t close the gap on the Jets instantly, and we really can’t judge the move until we see how he reacts to it, how he fits into the first new system and setting he has had to adapt to in a million years, and how hungry he is to actually play.

Two things are catching my eye as I glance at the sports news today:

The Olympics are now only three days away. I will be writing extensively about how to get some action down on them as they go on. For now, though, the biggest story is obviously the basketball - the Redeem Team. My position on them is this - I think that they are going to win the gold medal, but they are ridiculously undervalued to do so, so I won’t be betting on them. Proof of the difficulties came in full force last night. They played an exhibition game against Australia. The Aussies rested Andrew Bogut, so it should have been an absolute and utter cake walk for the Americans. It wasn’t. They ultimately won by 11, but en route they encountered way more troubles than they should have. The Aussies were close well into the third quarter, and they were able to shake Kobe Bryant and knock him off his game. I’m not saying for a second that this shows that the Americans are going to lose. It doesn’t. What it does show, though, is that international basketball is tough, and anything could happen. This will not be the walk in the park for the Americans that the odds and much of the media suggests it will be.

Tito Ortiz is no longer with the UFC. That was a given - he was washed up, and Dana White seems to hate him. What is surprising, though, is that it appears that Ortiz is going to sign with Affliction. The deal is reportedly a record deal for MMA. I’m disappointed. Ortiz will obviously draw eyes - he’s still perhaps the biggest celebrity in the sport. He’s just not that good any more. I was hoping that Affliction would try to continue to attract big audiences (100,000 PPV buys for their first card was a great start) by putting on top class shows, not by pitching gimmicks. Ortiz is supposedly fighting Babalu next. Who cares? He’s also reportedly circling a deal to fight Ken Shamrock again. The only thing better than one has-been is two, I guess. You could do better, Affliction. If you really want to make some noise start poaching the guys who are the stars of the UFC now, not the ones who were five years ago.

Starting off the NFL season with a winning bet did little to change my mind about the Hall of Fame game - it was still a ridiculous, glorified practice that taught us little about the two teams. Things went pretty much as expected - Jim Zorn looked keen and eager to please, while Tony Dungy looked like his list of places he would rather be could have stretched over about three pages. Single-spaced. Making projections about players or changing opinions based on what is seen in a game like that is very dangerous - schemes are simplified, the players aren’t in game shape, and the real talent was on the sidelines (if they were in Canton at all). That being said, I do want to just take a minute or two to talk about two players that shone in their opportunities after not getting nearly the respect they deserved on draft day:

Colt Brennan - Brennan got knocked for all sorts of things, and that dropped him from a potential high first round draft spot before last season to an eventual spot in the sixth round. He’s still a big risk, but I have thought since draft day that he has the potential to be the big steal of the draft, and nothing I saw last night changed that. He was nine of 10 passing, and he threw two picture perfect passes - an arcing toss to avoid a defender on a long bomb, and a touchdown pass that was an easy catch but would have been almost impossible to pick off. He still had some sketchy footwork at times, and he probably should have made it harder for the Colts’ to sack him than he did the one time the pocket collapsed, but he looked like clearly the second best QB in the game behind Jason Campbell, and he was stronger than most third stringers look in their first action.

Brennan might look a bit funny when he throws, and he might be the product of a college system to some extent, but writing him off for that reason seems ridiculous. No matter the system, Brennan was clearly special. He completed 70 percent of his college passes, and he threw more touchdowns than any other player ever has. You don’t do that if you aren’t both hungry and talented. Brennan has more determination and ability than several of the pivots picked before, and I think that he’ll be motivated by the draft day slight as well. I’ll be watching his career with interest.

Mike Hart - Keep in mind, of course, that I am a massive Michigan fan so I am more than a little biased. That being said, it was absolutely ridiculous that Hart was the 202nd player chosen in the draft. He’s undersized, but he has two huge things going for him - he has more heart than any guy out there, and he’s football-smart. I watched Hart play a lot in his college career, and I always referred to him as Coach Mike. When he was playing he usually did the right thing without mistakes, and when he was on the sidelines he was learning, teaching and encouraging those around him. He’s the real deal.

Hart showed his chops in limited action yesterday. On three consecutive plays he ran for 19, 14, and 12 yards. He caught a couple of passes, too, and ran a bit more. He’s in a deep running back rotation, but Hart showed last night what I already knew - he’s going to make some noise and can’t be written off. He’s at least the third best running back that they have on their roster, and I expect him to continue to make it harder for the coaches to think otherwise.

The biggest annual farce of the football season takes place this evening - The Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. Each year, two teams that aren’t even close to ready to play let their rookies have a scrimmage and NBC covers it. It’s a total joke. The only thing that redeems it is that their is a betting line. Betting on this game is absolutely ridiculous, but it’s better than nothing. I guess. Washingtn in favored by six points over the Colts, and the total is 31.5. Every second I think about this game costs me brain cells, but here’s a quick breakdown of the basic points.

1. The Colts will have no one there. Manning, Harrison, Freeney and Sanders are all out. The trip to Canton is optional for the rest of the veterans. Only rookies have to play, and they will get the majority of the time. This team will bear no resemblance at all to the actual Colts.

2. Tony Dungy hates the preseason. He is 2-11 in his last 13 games, so he obviously doesn’t even try. He views it just as extra practice. He has won the first game of the preseason once in the last five years.

3. Jim Zorn is in his first game as a head coach. He spent the last seven years in Seattle, and they tended to play pretty hard in the preseason. They were 7-5 straight up and ATS in their last three years there. We can expect a better effort from Zorn than from Dungy.

4. The starters for Washington will see some playing time. The offense is scheduled to play two series, or 12-15 plays. That’s not much, but way more than the Colts’ regular will play. Last year Manning took just 13 snaps in the first two games combined, and that was when Indy had four games,not five like they do now.

5. Washington legends Art Monk and Darell Green are being inducted into the Hall this weekend. That means that Redskins brass will be in town, and Canton should be full of Washington fans. Jim Zorn has a lot to prove in his new gig, and he should view this game as an opportunity to start doing that given the significance of the weekend for his team. That should be enough to give them a big boost, and, in my view, a likely cover.

The fallen idol that America loves to hate is back in action for the first time on Sunday since he forgot to show up for the Belmont to claim his Triple Crown. He runs in the Haskell at Monmouth. That along with the Travers at the end of August at Saratoga are the two most prestigious mid-summer races for three year olds - the bridge between the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup. Big Brown faces a solid but undistinguished field of six other runners in the race. He will carry 122 pounds wile the rest will tote 118.

If he is sound and ready to go then Big Brown should win with relative ease. He started slowly in his training after the Belmont, but his recent efforts have been inspiring and steadily improving. We won’t know if he is right until he runs, but all indications are that he should be fine. He has been installed as the 1/2 favorite starting out of the fourth gate. His chief competitor, at 4/1, is Cool Coal Man. This is a horse that causes me to pull my hair out. I loved him in his win of the Fountain of Youth over a strong field, but then he burned my money twice in a row in lousy showings in the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby. He regrouped with a win over this same Monmouth track in June, and will be ready to press Big Brown if he isn’t at his best. Atoned was second in Cool Coal Man’s last win, and he is the third choice here at 6/1. The Todd Pletcher trainee has long been highly touted, but never seems to be quite good enough. I’ll look elsewhere. Beyond that it’s hard to find a horse to like in the field - each has questions with the surface or the class.

It’s telling that, despite his well chronicled challenges, the big horses are actively avoiding Big Brown. The Jim Dandy was a very tough field last weekend, and three or four horses from that race could have been second choice here. Saturday’s West Virginia Derby doesn’t have nearly the cachet of the Haskell, yet it has a much tougher field, including Derby runners Recapturetheglory and Z Fortune. It seems as if the other trainers aren’t yet ready to count out th Derby and Preakness winner.

I am very hopeful that Big Brown has a big race, and not just because I have two very expensive Breeders’ Cup tickets purchased partly to see him in the flesh. I would be as confident about his chances as the odds suggest I should be if it weren’t for one thing - trainer Rick Dutrow. He showed on the Triple Crown trail that he is the cockiest human being on the planet. Now he is showing uncharacteristic humility. Dutrow has a horse called Sis City who was heavily favored to win the Kentucky Oaks in 2005. There were no good excuses for her flat fourth place finish. Despite training well, the horse never won another race. Dutrow keeps revisiting that experience in the media, and that spooks me a bit - is he seeing some of the same signs in Big Brown? I hope not, but I guess it helps to make this race more interesting. I’m not sure if I could handle that. I really liked that horse, and I lost money on her in the Oaks and a couple of times afterwards. I don’t know if I can handle the disappointment again.

I don’t want to spend too much time on this because it has been talked about to death in the media, but I do want to touch on a few of the trades that were made recently in baseball. Two historic franchises made out like bandits.

The Dodgers - There are two separate ways that this needs to be looked at. From a team perspective they had a truly brilliant trading deadline. The addition of Manny Ramirez is fantastic. He’s now heading into free agency, and finally out of Boston, so he should be motivated to perform. He’s a brilliant hitter, which is something that the Dodgers lack. He should also provide both motivation and protection for some of the other underperforming power in the lineup. The team doesn’t have to pay him this year, and they gave up nothing of real value to get him, so it was a brilliant move. Lost in that move was the addition of Casey Blake from Cleveland. He’s the real deal, too, and will be a very positive addition. This team is much better than they were.

The other thing that needs to be considered, though, is the public reaction. Ramirez is a popular player, and so the public is going to jump all over this team now that he is on board. At least in the short term, then, the public will likely bet the value out of the team. They are improved, and stand a good chance of taking their pathetic division, but they still lack power outside of Ramirez, they still underperform at the plate, and their pitching is still inconsistent and particularly concerning at the bottom of the rotation. Ramirez doesn’t completely solve any of their problems, and he’s still a gamble, so I think that the best course of action  might be to lay off the Dodgers until the public’s excitement over the move dies down a bit.

The Yankees - As much as I hate to admit it, the Yankees did an amazing job at this break. Pudge Rodriguez is a seasoned warrior and he’s pretty much the perfect fill-in for Jorge Posada down the stretch. He’s shown time and again that he can elevate his game when put into a new, exciting situation. Xavier Nady is a great addition to the outfield, Damaso Marte is an improvement in the bullpen, and getting rid of Kyle Farnsworth was brilliant. Most impressively, they didn’t overpay for any of it. With the Rays doing nothing, and the Red Sox in worse shape than they were before the deadline, the Yankees have positioned themselves well to continue climbing into this race. I would feel better if they had managed to get the pitcher they really needed, though I wasn’t crazy about some of the options they were chasing so I don’t know if it really matters. The Yankees deserve credit, and I hate that.

Once it all has had a chance to settle in a bit I’ll check back in with a look at the trades that have gone down over the last few days in the world of baseball. Before we get to that, though, I feel the need to deliver a kick or three to a guy while he is down. If Josh Beckett were just some journeyman pitcher then he would be having a perfectly acceptable year. He’s Josh Freaking Beckett, though, so this mess he is stringing together is total mess. There’s no excuse for being as average as he has been when you are as talented as he is and you have a good team behind you. He’s only partly to blame, though. As culpable are all of the naive, unthinking bettors who keep throwing their money at him so he can make it disappear like Houdini. Let’s take a look at the carnage:

Beckett is just 9-8, and the team is an even 10-10 when their ace is on the mound. There have been 264 pitchers who have made at least one start so far this season. 231 have been kinder to bettors than Beckett. A bettor who had laid a bet on each of his games would be down about 4.6 units so far on the season. Ugly.

Beckett has not looked like himself, but bettors don’t seem to have caught on to that fact. He has been favored in every one of his 20 outings, and heavily so in many cases. Over his last nine starts the team has won just three times, yet he has had prices of -169 or worse five times. He has lost four of those games. His last start shows just how bad a starter can be for the financial health of bettors. He was up against the Angels, probably the hottest team in baseball, and quite possibly the best. He was at home, but even the advantage of Fenway doesn’t justify a price of -169 given his recent form. It’s especially ridiculous given that he was up against Joe Saunders, a guy with 13 wins coming into the game. Beckett got crushed, and the favorite-loving public lost some serious cash. The books have to love a price like that - no price is too high when the public is blind.

I think that there is something wrong with Beckett. He has looked rough in three of his last four starts, and two of those outings have been his worst of the year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he misses a start or more at some point soon with some nagging injury. Until that happens, though, I’ll just sit back and watch the public continue to commit financial suicide.

Philly - DeSean Jackson is hurt - hamstring - and hasn’t been on the field yet. What a shock. I long ago appointed myself the president of the anti-fan club for Jackson. Don’t get me wrong - he’s a freakish talent and he did amazing things with the ball at Cal. I just don’t think that a guy that small and, apparently, that fragile, has a long future in the NFL. I can’t put my finger on what exactly turns me off so much about the guy, but if I had to make a bet on the guy it would definitely be as a flop. He’s certainly not the answer that McNabb is looking for. From what I have read about the Eagles’ camp, though, their receiving answer might already be on the roster. Jason Avant is a talented possession type receiver who is heading into his third year. He hasn’t done much statistically so far, but he has shown progress. He’s reportedly had a spectacular camp so far - he’s fit, hungry, and he’s catching absolutely everything. On top of it all, he’s a Michigan guy, so you know he’s good.

Washington - I am very intrigued from the news out of Washington. Word is that Jason Campbell has looked absolutely spectacular. His throws are tight and accurate, he knows the playbook like he wrote it, and he’s fit. It’s his fourth year, and first hand observers suggest that this is the one in which he breaks through. I want to believe it, because I like what the guy has to offer on paper, and have since his last year of college. I just can’t help but get a little nervous when a guy is being tabbed for a major breakthrough this early in camp. I’ll hope for the best, but reserve judgment until I see more.

Pittsburgh - Nothing I have heard out of Latrobe makes me think that the offensive line is going to be able to protect Ben Roethlisberger any more than they have recently. That’s a real concern. Big Ben has been sacked more than any other Steeler over a two year span. Now he doesn’t haven’t Alan Faneca, and there isn’t an impressive substitute. Ben hasn’t been entirely healthy for a while, and getting a beating again won’t help on that front. I don’t like Pittsburgh anyway, but the fact that they have done little to solve this obvious problem makes me think and hope that there will be value betting against this fairly public team.

I ended up watching most of the game between the Rays and the Blue Jays tonight. That might seem a bit obscure to some, but living in Canada I can watch pretty much every Jays game, and pretty much nothing from any other team. That was pretty fun in 1992 and 1993, but it has been kind of annoying for the last decade or so. Nonetheless, it was very interesting to watch the Rays in action, and they played a heck of a game in what was, for seven innings at least, a heck of a pitcher’s duel. The Rays ended up winning 3-0, but as I was watching it two things firmly established themselves in my mind:

1. I really, really like Matt Garza. The Tampa Bay starter had a complete game shutout, and he was never not in control. Shutting down the Toronto lineup isn’t as impressive as shutting down pretty much any other lineup, but it still counts. His win tonight moves him to 9-6 on the year. Unfortunately, the team is just 10-10 when he starts, and he is the only one of the five main starters for the team, impressively, who hasn’t been profitable on the year. He’s not that far off, though - he’s lost less than two units on the year, so he can turn things around on the year without too much trouble. He’s not the most consistent pitcher, either. Yet. He’s only 24 and in his third year, and he is clearly significantly better this year than he was with the Twins. He showed impressive maturity today, and I really got the sense that he is the kind of guy who is just building to a higher level. I don’t ever think he’ll be an ace, but he strikes me as a second or third starter type who could have a 12 or 15 year career. I like Delmon Young just fine, but I think that trading him for Garza is going to turn out to be a very nice deal for the Rays. Tonight’s game is an example of where a guy like Garza is a gem. He was up against Roy Halladay, so he was a juicy +141 underdog. That fits the public’s impression of him versus an ace, but given his skill and the play of his team it was a price just loaded with potential.

2. Strangely, I lost a bit of respect for Lou Piniella tonight. Lou is doing a solid job with the Cubs this year (though he should be doing a bit better given his roster and their talent advantage). He was a total and utter waste of oxygen in Tampa, though, Granted, this team is older and more experienced than the one he was at the helm of. On the other hand, though, Lou looked like he was mailing it in for much of his time in Florida and he got absolutely no more out of the talent he had than he could of with a minimum of effort. I guess what I’m saying is that I am not nearly as convinced that Piniella is a genius as I am supposed to be. On the other hand, I caught the last couple of innings of the Cards’ win over the Braves tonight. He’s had his troubles in the last couple of years, but I still think that if I was starting a team from scratch I would unquestionably have Tony LaRussa at the helm.

A couple of other brief thoughts from the night:

1. The Angels are obviously pretty serious about things this year. I like Mark Teixera as a player, and I think that he is an upgrade over Casey Kotchman, but I’m not sure he is enough of one to warrant the move. His biggest advantage is that he is a switch hitter, and he has decent power. Kotchman is a nice player, though, and he’s younger and cheaper. This will be a good deal for the Angels if they do well in the postseason, but it also has the real potential to be a good one for the Braves. The problem I have with it for the Angels, though, is that they have already pretty much totally wrapped up their division, so this deal will only pay off (or not) in October. I’d like it better if they had given up a player like Kotchman for a gain that would have been realized for three months.

2. I know I said I was done talking about basketball, but the news that broke as I am writing this is too much to pass up on. The Kings have traded Ron Artest to Houston for Bobby Jackson, a first rounder next year, and the rights to Donte Green. This is a very interesting deal. If Artest can be a good citizen in Houston then he will be a great addition. My only concern is that there are several egos on the team already, so it won’t be a seamless transition. Still, a decent risk for a team that was fairly competitive already. On the other hand, I love what the Kings got for Artest. It’s tough to get good value for a player when he has some obvious issues, and when everyone else in the world knows that you want to get rid of him. Jackson is a decent veteran presence. The draft pick could turn into a contributor. Green is a wildly talented guy. He’s far from a lock, but he is packed with upside. Good value given the circumstances.

With the obvious exception of the Olympics, the time has come for me to forget about basketball for a while and immerse myself fully into football. I generally don’t pay that much attention to the start of the NBA season, pay more attention to the hard court when the college season starts, and really get into basketball fully once college football ends and the NFL winds towards the less interesting (in my opinion) later rounds of the playoffs. Before I say goodbye, though, there were a couple of moves today that caught my attention and will factor into betting decisions down the road.

1. Renaldo Balkman traded to the Nuggets. I love this deal. Balkman has done virtually nothing of note on the scoresheet in his career, but he has talent that hasn’t been recognized or exploited by the ridiculous circus that the Knicks organization has become. He’ll likely welcome the move, and the more free flowing Denver offense will give him room to move, and the absence of a defensive presence on the team should give him a niche. Denver gave up nothing of note for Balkman, so I have a serious suspicion that this move is going to look like a steal down the road. Balkman won’t be an all-star, but he’ll be a totally different player than people have thought he is up to now.

2. Ricky Davis signed with the Clippers in a multi-year deal. Remember when Ricky Davis used to be good? Now he’s just a space filler as far as I am concerned. He had solid numbers with Miami last year, but nothing that happened in Miami last year means anything. Davis is on the decline, and this is yet another move that will tie up salary cap space and ensure that this team is just barely average.

3. Andris Biedrins re-signed with the Warriors for six years and $62 million. I am torn on this deal. Biedrins is a solid player who won’t disappoint. On the other hand, the team has now committed almost $130 million and six years to Biedrins and Monta Ellis. That will be a great move if both players put together solid careers and continue on their current trajectories. That amount of money takes a way a lot of flexibility, though, and I am not convinced that this team has enough going forward to be competitive (a point guard of note, for example). I can’t be hugely critical of this deal or the Ellis one, but it might not work out. Either way, I’m pretty sure that I won’t spend a lot of time betting on this team next year.

That’s it for now. Unless something earth shattering happens, I will touch on the NBA only in passing for a few months. The NBA have a good relationship, but we need time apart to remember what we miss about each other.